8/22/17

Morning Bullet Points 08-22

AUGUST 22, 2017—

 

MARKET HIGHLIGHTS

  • Markets trading mixed this morning after spending most of the night higher.
  • Crop ratings yesterday were pretty much in line with expectations with corn ratings steady at 61% g/e and bean ratings up 1 at 60% g/e.
  • After one day on the Pro Farmer crop tour, they found average corn yield in SD at 147.97 bpa (149.78 last year and 156 bpa 3 year average) and OH corn at 164.62 bpa (148.96 last year and 159.8 bpa 3 year average).  Both of those corn yields are surprisingly high, but worst areas in SD are not covered.  There was a multitude of variability reported.
  • Open interest in both corn and soybeans higher on the break yesterday with fund selling a feature.
  • Corn technically pushed to new lows yesterday.  Long-term support for the nearby contract comes in at 3.30, which is 18 cents below the current market.
  • Soybeans technically are holding above key support near 9.30 with overhead resistance in the mid-9.50’s.
  • Wheat technically pushed to new recent lows as well with support in the 4.10 area with resistance above the market near 4.30.

 

WEATHER

  • Rains worked across the WCB yesterday.
  • The WCB has more chances for rains in the next few days before drying out in the 6-10.  The 11-15 period is wetter for the WCB again.
  • The ECB remains mostly dry moving forward.
  • Temperatures expected to run well below normal for the Midwest over the next two weeks.

 

OUTLOOK

  • Corn appears to be in the process of grinding toward a seasonal low.  Major support is at 3.30.  Longer term, I think we can trade higher from here unless national corn yield is going to be within 1-2 bpa of 170 (which I do not think it is).
  • Soybeans have found flat price buyers on the current pullback and the market is letting “the funds” get short.  The last time they got short, the market quickly rallied $1.30, so I do not think this is the time to be overly bearish.
  • Wheat does not have any reason to rally while corn is under pressure.

 

Fun Fact of the Day: The Constitution was written during the Philadelphia Convention—now known as the Constitutional Convention—which convened from May 25 to September 17, 1787. It was signed on September 17, 1787.

 

Have a great day,

 

Drew Moore

 

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